Migration Case Study: Analysis of Top 3 Countries by Migration Outflows

Project by Andres Montes Lopez, Richa Gupta, Samikshya Siwakoti, Maximilian Rychwalski

Introduction

The world

The Beginning

The number of international migrants in 2019 was estimated at 270 million. According to migrant data collected in 2017, one in every 30 people in this world is living outside of their country of birth.

Nearly two-thirds of the migrants are looking for work. But there have been massive displacements due to ongoing conflicts and violence. IOM’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre has said that a total of 41.3 million people were forced to flee their homes at the end of 2018 – a record since monitoring began in 1998.

We were interested in exploring more about this topic.

The most recent data in World Bank is available for the year 2017.

The map shows the inflows (green) and outflows (red) migration patterns in 2017. The map shows an interesting pattern of the global south on average per country experiencing larger outflows than the global north. Focusing on the outflows, we see that venezuela and the Syrian Arab Republic having the highest rates at -125.2 and -111.1 persons per 1000 people respectively. Also, the other country that had the highest country but was not illustrated was south sudan which at the time of this data set was still part of Sudan.

In the next couple of sections we look closer at what migration patterns look like in these countries alongside sentiment of the media in towards these migrant outflows.

The graph below shows that some countries stand out with higher than normal immigration like Bahrain, Maldives and Oman whereas some other countries are standing out because of all the people moving out of them. For example in Syria, for every 100 people in the country 12 people are moving to other countries.

We are interested in understanding what are the reasons that are making these people move out of their home countries. We also analysed the future projections of the countries’ populations, birth and death rates when these extreme migration circumstances continue. In order to get an all round view of the problem we conducted some text analysis to identify the keywords being used around these challenges.

We are removing Puerto Rico from our observations due to the fact that it is a part of United States and most of the migration that Puerto Rico faces is still inside of the country.

We are more interested in seeing the movement of people within countries and the reasons due to which this happens.

The Future

In order to show how the immigration developments impact the population the following graphs focus on births and deaths. Additionally, the graphs give a better impression of how national events affected the population directly through births and deaths.

Births in number of births including both sexes combined in thousands (Medium)

This graph displays the total births including both sexes combined in thousands (y-axis) development of South Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela over time, specifically from 2020 to 2100 (x-axis). It is based on the medium projection variant, which the most popular type because it is based on the median of all trajectories based on a probabilistic model. In general it is interesting to note that Venezuela has the highest birth numbers out of those three countries and this number increases further until around 2030. Afterwards, Venezuela’s birth numbers decrease at the fastest rate and it is projected that it will have the lowest birth numbers from 2070 on. Syria seems to have an overall similiar trend with a delay of 20 years compared to Venezuela. However, South Sudan seems to be even further behind of those two countries, as it is projected that its birth numbers are going to increase constantly until 2070 before slowly decreasing.

Births in number of births including both sexes combined in thousands (Zero migration)

This graph displays the total births including both sexes combined in thousands (y-axis) development of South Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela over time, specifically from 2020 to 2100 (x-axis). It is based on the zero migration variant, which assumes that there is no international migration. The curves for South Sudan as well as Venezuela are similiar to the ones based on the medium variant. However, Syria’s curve is drastically different as it is projected to have a decreasing amount of births from 2020 on. As mentioned within the Syria-tab a reason could be the return of people, who fled the country during the Syrian war, as Syria was the only country to have a larger population projection with migration than without.

Deaths in number of deaths including both sexes combined in thousands (Medium)

This graph decsribes the total deaths including both sexes combined in thousands (y-axis) development of South Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela over time, specifically from 2020 to 2100 (x-axis). It is based on the medium projection variant, which the most popular type because it is based on the median of all trajectories based on a probabilistic model. In general Venezuela’s curve is concaved and South Sudan’s one convexed, which can probably be explained by the birth numbers from the previous graphs. South Sudan’s birth numbers are projected to be increasing and eventually surpassing the Venezuela’s numbers. Syria’s death numbers are increasing until around 2075 before decreasing for around 15 years. Afterwards, the deaths numbers increase once again. The short increase from 2090 to 2100 probably corresponds to the birth numbers from around 2030 to 2050.

Deaths in number of deaths including both sexes combined in thousands (Zero migration)

Word Cloud and Common Themes in News Coverages

As part of our analysis, we also looked at the most frequent common words that appeared in the article coverages that mentioned migration related terms for each of the top 3 countries of interest. In doing so, we utilized Web article coverages from Factiva database for 2019. The year was chosen to focus on the discussion surrounding the issues of immigrants prior to the COVID pandemic. The overall wordcloud from the corpus of articles is given below. It is followed by the top terms for each country from the set of common terms that existed in separate corpuses by country.

Venezuela

The Present

Venezuela is a country located at the northern end of South America. It occupies a roughly triangular area that is larger than the combined areas of France and Germany.

The economy of Venezuela is a market-based mixed economy based largely on the petroleum and manufacturing sectors, and has been in a state of total economic collapse since the mid-2010s. This has led to a mass-exodus of people from the country which has been facing an economic and political turmoil since a long time.

The GDP per capita growth has been dipping since reaching its peak in 2004. The GDP steadily fell from 2012.

Let us see what the migration trends of the country has been.

This graph shows how the numbers of migrants has steadily increased over time specially since the GDP growth rate started falling in 2012. Due to lack of current data on GDP it is difficult to correlate it with migration trends but it seems that GDP has not been able to recover back to its higher levels.

A very large number of migrants from Venezuela are refugees and asylum seekers who have moved to other countries to search for a safe haven.

This map shows the destinations of the refugees and asylum seekers from Venezuela in the year 2019.

Given the large number of emigration from Venezuela, Venezuelans have pretty much moved to all the corners of the world. But even then a little less than 1 million Venezuelans emigrated to Colombia in the year 2019 alone. This number has been steadily above 900,000 since 2010.

Word-Cloud for Article Coverages: Venezuela

Now, let’s look at the frequent terms that come up in articles that mentioned migration related terms and Venezuela. In doing so, we utilized Web article coverages from Factiva database for 2019 and selected the recent 20 articles pertaining to Venezuela that also mentioned migration related terms such as immigrants, migration, refugee, migrant and asylum seekers. The year was chosen to focus on the discussion surrounding the issues of immigrants prior to the COVID pandemic. We can see that the discussion revolves around Maduro’s regime and economic crisis. Colombia and Mexico also show up as they are popular destination countries for Venezuelan emigrants.

The Future

Population development in Venezuela (Medium vs. zero-migration)

This graph illustrates the total population (y-axis) development of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela over time (x-axis). In the period from 1950 to 2019 the population is increasing constantly with the exception from 2015 to 2019. At that time Venezuela suffered from a dramatic financial crisis, which might have had an effect on the total population. From 2020 to 2100 the graph includes two different curves. The red one is the medium projection variant, which the most popular type because it is based on the median of all trajectories based on a probabilistic model. The blue line describes the zero migration variant, which assumes that there is no international migration and projects the population based on that. In general the curves show that the assumptions are that more people are entering the country than people are leaving it. However, the curves almost noticably interesect in 2100. It is a very far ahead projection of population of course, but it is interesting that both curves seem to decrease from around 2060 on.

South Sudan

The Present

Made up of the 10 southern-most states of Sudan, South Sudan is one of the most diverse countries in Africa. It is home to over 60 different major ethnic groups, and the majority of its people follow traditional religions.

South Sudan gained independence from Sudan on 9 July 2011 as the outcome of a 2005 agreement that ended Africa’s longest-running civil war. Independence did not bring conflict in South Sudan to an end. Civil war broke out in 2013 when the president fell out with his then vice president, leading to a conflict that has displaced some 4 million people.

There is a clear connection between decrease in GDP Growth rates and the increasing number of people living below the national poverty lines. Year 2016, more than 80% of the population of the country was living below the national poverty line. The international poverty line, which is currently $1.90 a day, is the threshold that determines whether someone is living in poverty. The estimates in South Sudan are based on national poverty lines which will be at the most similar or lesser than the international poverty line at $1.90 a day.

Let us see what the migration trends in the country have been.

The GDP growth rate declined rapidly in 2010 and the same period saw an almost exponential growth in the number of migrants leaving the country. Since 2010, the country has seen continous periods of civil unrest. The number of migrants seem to have plateaued after reaching just around 850,000 people per year.

Now we can see where have the migrants landed after leaving their home country. A very large number of migrants from South Sudan are refugees and asylum seekers who have moved to other countries to search for a safe haven.

This map shows the destinations of the refugees and asylum seekers from South Sudan in the year 2019.

Migrants from South Sudan have migrated majorly to African countries and a few to India in the Asian sub-continent. It seems that South Sudan migrants might be either financially drained to make long distance journeys to US/ Canada/ Europe which are popular destinations for migrants all over the world or it seems that South Sudanese people are not being openly accepted in these countries.

Given that for more than 10 years more than 50% of the population has been living below the poverty line hypothesis 1- makes more sense. Also, analysing the word clouds of articles on South Sudan migration seem to highlight the humanitarian crisis this war has taken.

Word-Cloud for Article Coverages: South Sudan

Now, let’s look at the frequent terms that come up in articles that mentioned migration related terms and South Sudan. In doing so, we utilized Web article coverages from Factiva database for 2019 and selected the recent 20 articles pertaining to South Sudan that also mentioned migration related terms such as immigrants, migration, refugee, migrant and asylum seekers. The year was chosen to focus on the discussion surrounding the issues of immigrants prior to the COVID pandemic.

We can infer that the discussion revolves around internal conflict in South Sudan that has displaced many people. South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in July 2011, but the ruling political party that originally led the way for independence, is divided and fighting for power which erupted into violence in the streets of the capital, Juba. South Sudan is one of the most fled countries in the world, alongside Syria, Afghanistan and Venezuela.

The Future

Population development in South Sudan (Medium vs. zero-migration)

This graph illustrates the total population (y-axis) development of South Sudan over time (x-axis). In the period from 1950 to 2019 the population is increasing almost constantly with the exception from around 1985 to 19959 as well as 2015 to 2019. South Sudan has a history of having issues with their census, which might be a reason for the two ‘bumps’ in the generally increasing curve. From 2020 to 2100 the graph includes two different curves. The red one is the medium projection variant, which the most popular type because it is based on the median of all trajectories based on a probabilistic model. The blue line describes the zero migration variant, which assumes that there is no international migration and projects the population based on that. Overall it seems like people tend to leave the country or at least there could be more people leaving the country than people coming in.

Syria

The Present

After Syria gained its independence in 1946, political life in the country was highly unstable, owing in large measure to intense friction between the country’s social, religious, and political groups. In 1970 Syria came under the authoritarian rule of Pres. Hafiz al-Assad. After Assad’s death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad became president. Bashar al-Assad ultimately continued his father’s authoritarian style of governments to quash political dissent. Long-suppressed internal tensions led to the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011.

A severe decline in the GDP growth rate in 2004 onwards led to a sharp increase in the number of migrants.

After experiencing a mass exodus in 2010 when more than 1.5 million people emigrated from the country there has been some decline but the number of migrants still hovers close to less than a million. In the year 2010 almost 1.1 million people moved to neighbouring country Iraq.

Similar to trend observed in South Sudan, Syrian migrants have not travelled to far off countries in the American and the European continents. They have limited themselves to the North-east African countries or western Asia.

This map shows the destinations of the refugees and asylum seekers from Syria in the year 2019.

The graph below represents the number of deaths that have taken place due to Syrian Civil War since 2011.

This table sheds more light on how many of the victims of this war have been children and civilian adults.

Word-Cloud for Article Coverages: Syria

Now, let’s look at the frequent terms that come up in articles that mentioned migration related term and Syria. In doing so, we utilized Web article coverages from Factiva database for 2019 and selected the recent 20 articles pertaining to Syria that also mentioned migration related terms such as immigrants, migration, refugee, migrant and asylum seekers. The year was chosen to focus on the discussion surrounding the issues of immigrants prior to the COVID pandemic.

We can see that Turkey comes up a lot in discussions pertaining to Syria followed by Russia, United States.Turkey has been diplomatically and militarily involved in the Syrian Civil War since its outbreak in 2011. In 2017, Turkish forces launched an operation to establish observation posts in the northern Idlib Governorate, in coordination with Russia. On the other hand, the United States has sought to reduce its involvement in Syria and does not back the Bashar Al Ashad led government while Russia supports Ashad.

The Future

Population development in Syria (Medium vs. zero-migration)

This graph illustrates the total population (y-axis) development of the Syrian Arab Republic over time (x-axis). In the period from 1950 to 2019 the population is increasing constantly with the exception from around 2015 to 2019. A possible reason for the development during that period is the Syrian war. From 2020 to 2100 the graph includes two different curves. The red one is the medium projection variant, which the most popular type because it is based on the median of all trajectories based on a probabilistic model. The blue line describes the zero migration variant, which assumes that there is no international migration and projects the population based on that. Interestingly, the population increases at a faster rate when there is migration. That is suprising for a country that experienced a decrease in the total population due to war. However, a possible explanation could be the return of Syrians who fled and registered as refugees in other countries.

Datasets

The World Bank Open Data set includes world development indicators that cover a wide range of metrics across the world. Using the wb package, we chose the migration (SM.POP.NETM) and population (SP.POP.TOTL) indicators to measure the flows of people in all areas where the data was available. The rate was computed using the typical convention of a person per 1000 people. This allows for ease of interpretation and comparability across countries. For example, a 4 rate would be interpreted as a 4 persons coming into the country per 1000 people of the current year’s population. In a similar fashion, a -4 rate would be interpreted as 4 persons leaving the country per 1000 people.
The UN dataset presents estimates of international migrant by age, sex and origin. Estimates are presented for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019 and are available for all countries and areas of the world. The estimates are based on official statistics on the foreign-born or the foreign population.
Since June 2011, the Violations Documentation Center in Syria (VDC) has recorded casualties resulting from the ongoing civil war in Syria.
Factiva News Coverages: As part of our analysis, we looked at the most frequent common words that appeared in the article coverages that mentioned migration related terms such as immigrants, migration, refugee, migrant and asylum seekers for each of the 3 countries of interest. In doing so, we utilized Web article coverages from Factiva database for 2019 and selected the recent 20 articles per country. The year was chosen to focus on the discussion surrounding the issues of immigrants prior to the COVID pandemic.
The UN Population Dynamics dataset (https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/CSV/):The World Prospectus 2019 was issued by the UN’s department of economic and social affairs. The datasets cover a broad range of real data from 1950 to 2019 and estimated data from 2020 to 2100. They include values for each country seperatly and cover the following topics: population, fertility, mortality, migration, and age. This paper’s births, deaths, as well as the population graphs are based on those datasets.